What happens if we have a hung Parliament?

Dear Reader,

It looks like election-prediction fever is back again. Most political commentators are saying GE13 will be held this year, some even suggesting as close as post-Ramadhan and pre-Budget. I prefer to remain quiet because, at the end of the day, only one man knows the exact date and even he himself remains in a conundrum as to when to fix the date. Beyond the shadow of a doubt, his wife will definitely offer her suggestion laced with very persuasive reasons. So trying to read his mind is a fruitless endeavour best left to pundits and bookies.

What pre-occupies my thoughts more is what will happen AFTER the election. If Barisan Nasional is returned again, then it is status quo and back to the drawing board for Pakatan Rakyat. If Pakatan Rakyat wins Putrajaya, then we will definitely be seeing drama enfolding like never before on the night the results hit the airwaves – probably with tear gas and water cannons and even rubber bullets thrown in – but resolved soon enough. In either case, one coalition will be the sure winner and life will go on, for better or worse.

So who will win? These two articles, Polls unpredictable with spike in new voters, says Nomura and GE-13 can go either way, says Japanese research house, should give you an idea.

The lingering question on my mind, though, is what if we have a hung Parliament?

The hung Parliament notion is not far-fetched, and we would be wise to give it a considered thought. It happened in Australia and in the UK last year and it could very well happen here in Malaysia. Many scenarios can lead to a hung Parliament, and the permutations to these scenarios are endless.

Let us take one straightforward scenario. The Third Force and other independents are wiped out. BN wins Sabah and Sarawak while PR wins West Malaysia. The seats are evenly divided, right down the middle. Someone has to budge. Who then becomes King Maker, and will this King Maker come from Sarawak?

And remember, this is a straightforward scenario. In politics, nothing is ever straightforward. So the scenario could be far more complex and convoluted. Independents will become the lynch-pins. How scary is this, that a government is cobbled together by the mere support of individuals with ambiguous and questionable political principles?

This then leads me to ask more questions. BN will be throwing promises and bags of cash to win over as many seats as possible for a convincing majority. Will PR do the same? Does political expediency absolve the immorality of frogging?

Will Sarawakian BN MPs cross over in the wake of a weakened BN? Will PR accept them? Will their constituents accept this? Will Sarawakian PR MPs crumble and succumb to the temptations offered by the other side?

So many questions. And no answers. Rest assured, if we have a hung Parliament, it will be anyone’s guess who will sit on the Government Bench eventually. Now this is what really keeps me up at night.